The Law of Averages states the following:
A particular outcome or event will, over certain periods of time, occur at a frequency that is similar to its probability [1].
Or in other words, the number of times the event actually takes place will match the probability of the event occurring. I love statistical laws, they are not only logical but they take me back to school. But why am I telling you this? And what does this have anything to do with eliminating worry? Fair questions both, and here's why.
Many a time, we will sit and worry about things that do not actually happen as our imaginary worst-case scenarios are usually unlikely. Think about it, how many times in your life has the worst-case scenario actually happened? And even if it did, if you are reading this post you have come out alright. We fear things for no real reason but suffer real health consequences because of it. Some health consequences include heart trouble, stomach ulcers, blood pressure and insomnia. And we all know how it feels when our sleep is negatively impacted.
"We have nothing to fear but fear itself." -Franklin D. Roosevelt
"Do you know what fear stands for? False Evidence Appearing Real." - Jake Gyllenhaal
It has been reported that 20% of the USA population has some level of fear of flying [2]. However, only 1 in 188,364 planes crash, of which most are small non-commercial aircraft. For large or commercial planes, there is one fatal crash every 3.7 million flights. Therefore, if you are ever afraid on a plane, just remember that 1 in 103 motor vehicles crash [3]. So if you arrived at the airport in a car in one piece, you should arrive at your destination in one piece as a guarantee! So why worry while in a plane but be confident in a car? In addition, out of the 100,000 flights taken daily, why would your plane be the one to go down? And even if the worst should befall you, surviving a plane accident might not be as rare as you think. The European Transport Safety Council categorised 90% of aircraft accidents as survivable in a study in 1996, and airline safety has since improved.
"Today is the tomorrow you worried about yesterday. Tragedy isn't getting something or failure to get it; it's losing something you already have. Waste not fresh tears over old griefs." - Euripides
"You have survived every bad day in your life so far! What is there to worry about now?" - Self-Mastery
Another common fear is being struck by lightning, but the odds of that happening are 300,000 to 1. Why be consumed by the fear of lightening when alcohol poses a far greater threat! What do I mean I hear you say? Let's examine some problems that light alcohol consumption can cause [3]:
High blood pressure, heart disease, stroke, liver disease, and digestive problems
Cancer of the breast, mouth, throat, oesophagus, voice box, liver, colon, and rectum.
Weakening of the immune system, increasing the chances of getting sick.
Learning and memory problems, including dementia and poor school performance.
Mental health problems, including depression and anxiety.
Social problems, including family problems, job-related problems, and unemployment.
Alcohol use disorders, or alcohol dependence.
And yet, not a single seat remains for me at the bar or pub, it really is shocking!
The human race has managed to master the art of worrying by worrying just about everything. Some common worries include: the past, gossiping, haters, work, ageing, death, what people think, previous mistakes, things not in our control, perfectionism, scarcity when the world is abundant, need for certainty, comparison, self-doubt, control over everything, being homeless, being alone and not finding a life partner, and being buried alive. However, we discover after the day is done that over 95% of the things we worry about never happen but the negative health impacts of worry still stay with us.
This is how the insurance business came about. Insurance companies bet, or "insure" people for things that rarely happen. The insurance industry will continue to thrive as long as people pay for insurance that protects themselves against situations that happen much less frequently than they imagine.
If you were drafted to fight in the battle of Gettysburg (July 1st-3rd 1863), you would probably be deathly afraid and get your affairs in order. However, as astonishing as it sounds, the number of people that died per thousand during the battle was similar to the number of people who died between the ages of 50 and 55 per thousand during peacetime. [4]
"The infantile-paralysis epidemic (polio) swept over California, there was a lot of hysteria but as the total number of people impacted was 1835, by the law of averages the chances of getting affected were remote. This gave me confidence and removed my worries." - California resident
Always examine the record, the statistics and the rationale behind your fears. Determining the basis of your worries and anxieties will usually make you come to the conclusion that your fears and worries are purely imaginary.
"If you worry about something you go through it twice."
"99% of the things we worry about never happen."
The armed forces also use the law of averages to boost morale. For instance, the US Navy used statistics such as, out of 100 tankers that are hit, 60 stay afloat. Out of the 40 that sink, only 5 sink in less than 5 minutes. This meant that there was enough time to safely evacuated the tanker, in the already unlikely event of getting hit. This made it clear to everyone that if the worst should happen, it will still result in a very low number of casualties. A perfect example of how the law of averages is used to eradicate worries.
Key takeaway: Use the law of averages to get a realistic view of the chances of the most feared event actually occurring in reality. To outlaw your worries, examine the record and ask yourself the following questions:
What exactly am I worried about?
What is the worst-case scenario?
How often has this scenario actually occurred for me or for anyone I know?
When was the last time this happened and why?
Aren't we silly, turning our pleasant days and comfortable nights into torture and misery by worrying ourselves into poor health. All of this over an event that will probably not even happen. And even if it does, you will be given the tools necessary to deal with the situation at hand. So relax, have faith and enjoy being in the moment you are currently in.
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